Flywheel Effect; M&A Value vs. Volume; PE Stake in Firms
Law.com examined the AmLaw 100 over the last 25 years, as part of the recent release of the 2026 AmLaw 100 (Who Pulled Away, Who Dropped Off_ The Am Law 100 Through the Years Andrew Maloney, Law.com, 4/16/26). A few observations:
· The pace of growth has increased dramatically. At the beginning of the century, it took more than a decade for the revenue of the top-ranked firm to double. Most recently, Kirkland doubled its revenue in just five years (from $4.83B in 2020 to $10.5B in 2025).
· Increased segmentation. Twenty-five years ago, the Top 50 firms were much closer together in revenue. The standard deviation (how far a data set spreads from its mean) has grown more than tenfold since then.
· Size matters. As firms increase their size, they are able to make larger gains more rapidly because of compounding.
A.I. and Write-offs; Raising Rates; 2026 Predictions
Much has been written about how AI might affect associate hours and ultimately law firm revenue. According to Thomson Reuters' 2026 Report on the State of the U.S. Legal Market ("State of the Market"), the answer may be not much, at least in the short-run, because associate time is already being written off. Associate realization averages 85.6%. According to Thomson Reuters, "this creates a buffer in which AI can absorb the inefficient portions without touching collected revenue. In this way, firms can automate the work that wasn’t getting paid for while keeping associates busy on higher-value tasks." While making intuitive sense, the premise begs two questions: 1) are there enough higher-value tasks to keep all associates busy? and 2) will clients expect write-offs for that time as well?
Frothy Market; Hiding Partner Promotions; Vetting Client Portability
Big Law is doing quite well so far in 2025, despite economic uncertainty and adverse actions taken by the Trump Administration earlier this year. The lateral partner market has been active as well, with 2,888 lateral moves to AmLaw 200 firms through the month of September. These moves eclipse the 2024 tally of 2,687 through the same period, as well as the prior 3 year average of 2,574.
Ethical Pitfalls for Partners when Changing Firms
NALSC podcast featuring Tina Solis, a partner at Nixon Peabody and NALSC collaborator, who advises law firm partners on the legal and ethical aspects of making a lateral move; Tina covers a range of considerations that can help partners avoid pitfalls.