Flywheel Effect; M&A Value vs. Volume; PE Stake in Firms
Law.com examined the AmLaw 100 over the last 25 years, as part of the recent release of the 2026 AmLaw 100 (Who Pulled Away, Who Dropped Off_ The Am Law 100 Through the Years Andrew Maloney, Law.com, 4/16/26). A few observations:
· The pace of growth has increased dramatically. At the beginning of the century, it took more than a decade for the revenue of the top-ranked firm to double. Most recently, Kirkland doubled its revenue in just five years (from $4.83B in 2020 to $10.5B in 2025).
· Increased segmentation. Twenty-five years ago, the Top 50 firms were much closer together in revenue. The standard deviation (how far a data set spreads from its mean) has grown more than tenfold since then.
· Size matters. As firms increase their size, they are able to make larger gains more rapidly because of compounding.
Law Firm Demand Up 3.3% in Q4; WasThere Really an M&A Dip?; Are Rates Too Low?
Law firm demand remained solid in Q4. Hours worked across U.S. firms increased 3.3% year-over-year, according to the Thomson Reuters Law Firm Financial Index ("LFFI Report"), which tracks financial data from 171 U.S. firms across the Am Law 100, Second Hundred, and Midsize segments.
Growth was broad-based across practice areas, with litigation and real estate leading the way.
A.I. and Write-offs; Raising Rates; 2026 Predictions
Much has been written about how AI might affect associate hours and ultimately law firm revenue. According to Thomson Reuters' 2026 Report on the State of the U.S. Legal Market ("State of the Market"), the answer may be not much, at least in the short-run, because associate time is already being written off. Associate realization averages 85.6%. According to Thomson Reuters, "this creates a buffer in which AI can absorb the inefficient portions without touching collected revenue. In this way, firms can automate the work that wasn’t getting paid for while keeping associates busy on higher-value tasks." While making intuitive sense, the premise begs two questions: 1) are there enough higher-value tasks to keep all associates busy? and 2) will clients expect write-offs for that time as well?
State of the Market; Practice Area Demand Growth; Legal Spend
Thomson Reuters recently released its 2026 State of the Legal Market, analyzing 2025 and making predictions for 2026. In sum, 2025 was a very good year for the law firms studied.
The average firm achieved 13% profit growth and 1.9% demand growth for the year, registering the third best year for demand growth since the Great Financial Crisis. These results were on top of an already strong 2024. For perspective, law firms averaged only 0.6% quarterly year-over-year demand growth since the beginning of the 2010s, and any significant growth during that period was typically a rebound from a large dip.
Double Digit PPP Growth?; Demand by Practice; Rate Growth
Q3 2025 was favorable for most large law firms. Demand growth, as measured by hours worked, was up 3.9% over Q3 2024 across all segments (AmLaw 100, Second Hundred, and Midsize firms), placing Q3 2025 among the top-ranking quarters for demand growth in the last twenty years. Impressively, this growth was "driven by sustained client activity," in contrast to the high growth quarters in 2021, which were really a return to baseline from pandemic lows. By segment, Midsize firms & the AmLaw Second Hundred led the way with 4.9% and 4.3% demand growth, respectively; the AmLaw 100 registered only 1.7% demand growth but still maintains an advantage in worked rate growth (LFFI Report).
Frothy Market; Hiding Partner Promotions; Vetting Client Portability
Big Law is doing quite well so far in 2025, despite economic uncertainty and adverse actions taken by the Trump Administration earlier this year. The lateral partner market has been active as well, with 2,888 lateral moves to AmLaw 200 firms through the month of September. These moves eclipse the 2024 tally of 2,687 through the same period, as well as the prior 3 year average of 2,574.
Eye of the Hurricane?; Rates Undisrupted; Demand by Practice Area
Q2 2025 was favorable for most large law firms. As uncertainty in the economy and the geopolitical landscape mounted, clients increasingly relied on outside counsel for guidance, echoing the surge in worked-rate growth seen during the early stages of the pandemic.
Inflated Books of Business; Client Stickiness; Assessing Portability
Decipher Investigative Intelligence conducts due diligence on lateral partner hiring for law firms. In its most recent report, Decipher developed an average lateral partner candidate profile for 2024 and compared it to prior years. Decipher reported the average book of business projected by lateral candidates in 2024 at $2,964,107, up 73% over 2023 and up 110% over the previous 3-year average.
Partner Headcount Growth; Capital Contributions; Compensation Spreads
ALM released its NLJ 500 Report last month, ranking the 500 largest firms in the U.S. by headcount. Headcount grew 5.5% overall, with the average NLJ 500 firm reporting 396 full-time attorneys (NLJ Report). In both the NLJ 500 and the AmLaw 200, non-equity partner headcount growth significantly outpaced equity partner headcount growth in the aggregate. However, because lawyers in the AmLaw 100 comprise such a significant percentage of the headcount of both the NLJ 500 and the AmLaw 200, it is worthwhile to examine partner headcount growth by segment. Interestingly, there was no significant headcount growth of equity partners in the AmLaw 100 or in the NLJ 500 firms outside of the AmLaw 200 ("non-AmLaw" firms). In the AmLaw Second Hundred, however, both equity and non-equity partner tiers grew at roughly the same rate (6.01% vs. 6.63%).
Partner Compensation Models;Behind the Numbers; DEI Thesaurus
ALM Pacesetter Research released its "Innovation in Law Firm Partner Compensation Models" Report on June 5th ("Report"). Compensation is critical to both retaining current partners and attracting lateral partners. 63% of partners surveyed by ALM noted that compensation is the most impactful factor influencing their decision to explore partnership at a different firm (Report, citing ALM's 2025 New Partners Survey Results Study).
Q1 Performance; AmLaw 100 & 200; Mansfield Rule
Firms were able to grow rates substantially in Q1 2025, according to both Thomson Reuters' Q1 Law Firm Financial Index and Wells Fargo Legal Specialty Group's Q1 Survey, reporting average worked growth of 7.3% and average standard rate growth of 9.5%, respectively.
Partner Rates; Billable Targets; Reason to Leave?
ALM released its Attorney Compensation Survey in January, which included the average standard hourly rate charged by both equity and non-equity partners as of 1/1/2024 at firms of varying size (Attorney Compensation Survey, ALM Intelligence, Jan. 2025). Interestingly, billing rates increased with firm size in a nearly linear fashion, for both equity and non-equity partners..
State of the Legal Market; Lateral Partner Hiring; Golden Handcuffs
Profits per equity partner (PEP) grew 11.6% in 2024, one of the strongest PEP performances in recent years, according to the State of the Legal Market Report by Georgetown University Law Center and Thomson Reuters. According to the Report, profit growth was the result of both worked rate growth (6.5%) and demand growth (2.6%).
Leverage; Equity Partner Growth; Capital Contributions
Citi and Hildebrandt released their 2025 Client Advisory, predicting that 2025 will be a "very good year" for law firms (Citi Hildebrandt Client Advisory "Client Advisory", Greta Rusanow & Brad Hildebrandt, 12/5/24). They anticipate continued demand in practices that have fueled a strong 2024 (namely litigation, regulatory (particularly anti-trust), funds/investment management, bankruptcy and restructuring); they also forecast the "return of M&A, corporate and transactional work broadly across all segments, as interest rates continue to fall and market conditions improve" (Client Advisory).
Q3 Demand Growth; Rate Charts by Practice
Law firms are expected to register profit growth at year-end 2024, as firms have successfully increased rates, headcount, and productivity ("getting more out of each lawyer"), according to Thomson Reuters Law Firm Financial Index which tracks and analyzes billing and financial data for 171 U.S.-based law firms, including 51 Am Law 100 firms, 55 Am Law Second Hundred firms, and 65 Midsize firms.
Partner Comp by Practice Group; Comp Cuts; Return to Office
MLA released its 2024 Partner Compensation survey, including responses from 1,718 partners in the AmLaw 100 and 200. Partners in all practice areas saw compensation increases relative to the 2022 and 2014 surveys, reflecting firms' continued profit growth, largely due to continued rate increases.
Rosy Outlook; Relative Performance Measures; Underwriting Laterals
Law firms are on track to produce "one of the strongest years we see," according to Gretta Rusanow, head of advisory services for Citi's Law Firm Group (Law Firms Could Post 'One of the Strongest Years We See', Andrew Maloney, 8/19/24, American Lawyer). Citi's recent report analyzed the first 6 months of 2024, relative to the same period in 2023, and found demand and productivity growth of 2.9% and 2.1% respectively and double-digit revenue growth (11.4%).
Q2 Performance. Is Size a Winning Strategy? Where Are They Now?
Q2 was a productive quarter for most law firms, according to Thomson Reuters Law Firm Financial Index which tracks and analyzes billing and financial data for 171 U.S.-based law firms, including 51 Am Law 100 firms, 55 Am Law Second Hundred firms, and 65 Midsize firms (Law Firm Financial Index Q2 2024 Executive Report “LFFI Report”, 8/5/24). Most practice areas experienced demand growth relative to Q2 2023.
Pay Spread; Tweaking Comp Models; Succession Planning
The American Lawyer reported last month that the "Am Law 100 upped its average equity partner pay spread from 9.8-to-1 in 2022 to 10.3-to-1 in 2023" (Largest Law Firms Increase Partner Pay Spread, as Comp Models Hit 'Inflection Point', Andrew Maloney, 5/28/24). In my experience, median equity partner pay spread figures are more instructive than averages. Averages among the AmLaw 100 and Second Hundred have been skewed by outliers like Fisher Broyles.
Financial Performance; AI’s Impact on Big Law Economics; Influencing Origination Credit
The new AmLaw 100 survey was released last month, revealing that 2023 was a good year for many firms. Out of 100, only 10 posted revenue declines in 2023. Only 20 declined in profits per equity partner. And nearly three-quarters of Am Law 100 law firms raised the average compensation of all firm partners, equity and non-equity.